From Sanctions to Summits: Min Aung Hlaing’s Unexpected Diplomatic Comeback
- Indian Ocean International Affairs
Shreya Naskar- 0
- 7 minutes read
Before the earthquake, Min Aung Hlaing was preparing for a rare foreign visit to Thailand for the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) summit. The junta had been losing ground in the ongoing civil war, and Min Aung Hlaing was under pressure from both internal and external forces. However, the earthquake has shifted the political dynamics in his favour.
How the Disaster Helped Min Aung Hlaing Re-enter Global Diplomacy
- Diplomatic Calls with World Leaders: Within a week of the earthquake, Min Aung Hlaing spoke with: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. These calls led to a flurry of international aid, effectively breaking the diplomatic isolation imposed on him since the coup.
- Foreign Powers Re-engage with Myanmar: China, India, and Russia—all competing for influence in Myanmar—now have an opportunity to strengthen their presence in the country under the guise of humanitarian aid. ASEAN and BIMSTEC nations are also showing renewed interest in Myanmar, seeing the crisis as an opportunity to reshape their diplomatic relations with the junta.
- Boosting the Junta’s Legitimacy: By receiving aid and direct communication from world leaders, Min Aung Hlaing is positioning himself as Myanmar’s legitimate authority. This weakens opposition forces, which have been trying to overthrow the junta.
While countries like India, China, and Malaysia have publicly expressed their support for Myanmar’s disaster relief, their involvement is not purely humanitarian.
India’s Role- India shares a border with Myanmar and has strong economic and security interests in the country. New Delhi quickly pledged aid, but it is also using the situation to counter China’s growing influence in Myanmar. India is expected to increase its engagement with the junta, despite earlier criticism of Min Aung Hlaing’s regime.
China’s Strategic Interests- China has historically supported Myanmar’s junta, viewing it as a key ally in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing was one of the first to offer aid, but its assistance is likely tied to ensuring continued economic and security cooperation in the region.
Malaysia’s Involvement- Malaysia has been vocal against the Myanmar junta in recent years. However, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s call to Min Aung Hlaing suggests that Malaysia might be softening its stance, at least temporarily, for humanitarian reasons.
Western Response- The United States and European Union remain sceptical of Myanmar’s junta. While they may provide humanitarian aid, they are unlikely to engage directly with Min Aung Hlaing. Instead, they continue to support pro-democracy forces within Myanmar.
One of the most intriguing developments post-earthquake is the junta’s reaffirmation of plans for a general election in December.
Why Is the Junta Talking About Elections?
- The junta has been losing ground in the civil war, and elections could help legitimize its rule.
- Engaging with world leaders post-earthquake may help convince international observers that Myanmar is moving towards democracy—even if the elections are not free or fair.
- The junta may also be buying time, using the disaster as a way to reduce internal resistance and delay opposition efforts.
However, most political analysts and pro-democracy activists remain sceptical, believing the elections will be heavily controlled by the junta to ensure its continued rule.
A Disaster That Reshaped Myanmar’s Politics
The devastating earthquake in Myanmar has done more than cause massive human and economic loss—it has unexpectedly reshaped the country’s political and diplomatic landscape. Min Aung Hlaing, once an isolated leader, is now back in diplomatic conversations with world leaders. Countries like India, China, and Malaysia are re-engaging with Myanmar, seeing the disaster as an opportunity to expand their influence. The junta is using this moment to boost its legitimacy, reaffirm its control, and push for elections in December.
However, while diplomatic ties have been restored, Myanmar’s future remains uncertain. With millions displaced, a struggling economy, and ongoing civil unrest, the junta’s grip on power is still far from secure. Whether this moment marks a turning point for Myanmar’s stability or further conflict remains to be seen.
What’s Next for Myanmar?
- Will the junta successfully hold elections?
- Will international aid lead to long-term diplomatic changes?
- How will the pro-democracy opposition respond to the junta’s renewed legitimacy?
For now, the world watches as Myanmar struggles to recover from both a natural disaster and a deep political crisis.
