Paletwa in Crosshairs: Arakan Army’s Next Move After Rakhine Takeover
- Bangladesh India International Affairs South Asia
Shreya Naskar- 0
- 3 minutes read
The Arakan Army (AA), a powerful ethnic armed organization in Myanmar, has reportedly taken full control of Rakhine State. If current trends persist through the rest of 2025, the AA is poised to consolidate its hold not only over Rakhine but also over Paletwa Township in Chin State. The claim over Paletwa is rooted in the AA’s historical assertion that the township was once a part of Rakhine State. The AA’s recent military offensives in the Magway Region indicate its broader aspirations, potentially aiming to annex certain areas into a newly envisioned Arakan state. This territorial expansion signals the AA’s long-term goal of self-rule and possibly even secession from Myanmar. With increasing military victories and territorial control, the AA could seek recognition as an independent nation. This development aligns with the broader movement among ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that are working towards a new political structure in Myanmar following the anticipated downfall of the military junta.
AA’s control over Rakhine State carries significant implications for the Rohingya population. Historically, the AA has had a tense relationship with the Rohingya, and it remains unclear whether the minority group would find safety and acceptance under an AA-led administration. Given this uncertainty, it is unlikely that many Rohingya refugees will voluntarily return to Rakhine State. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has suspended its humanitarian aid programs, exacerbating the plight of hundreds of thousands of Burmese refugees in Bangladesh, India, and Thailand. The reduction in essential food and medical supplies raises serious concerns about malnutrition and mortality rates among displaced populations.
India’s approach to the evolving situation in Myanmar has been cautious, as it grapples with its own challenges in the northeastern states, particularly Manipur. The influx of Christian and Buddhist refugees from Myanmar has further complicated domestic security and humanitarian policies. Additionally, the political instability in Myanmar and Bangladesh provides China with an opportunity to exploit regional unrest, potentially destabilizing India’s northeastern border. Recognizing the strategic importance of Myanmar, India has maintained diplomatic engagement with both the military junta and the ethnic armed organizations. According to Cchavi Vasisht, a senior research associate at the Chintan Research Foundation, India has recently initiated discreet diplomatic channels with rebel groups along the border to safeguard its regional security interests. The AA’s ascension as a dominant force in Rakhine State and beyond has the potential to reshape Myanmar’s political landscape. Whether it results in an independent Arakan nation or continued military confrontations, the situation remains volatile. The consequences will be far-reaching, affecting not only Myanmar’s internal dynamics but also regional stability involving Bangladesh, India, and China.
